Sunbird Market Update and Outlook – March Quarter 2026
Summary: The March quarter saw increased volatility driven by rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and pressure across growth assets. Markets remain cautious with inflation risks and energy supply constraints shaping the outlook.
Global Wrap
March quarter saw increased volatility with interest rates rising and growth assets undergoing a moderate correction. Key drivers included:
- Derating in software stocks (AI-related)
- Pressure on private equity and credit markets
- Geopolitical tensions impacting global energy supply
Oil and gas prices increased significantly due to supply restrictions, contributing to inflationary pressure globally.
Australian Wrap
Australia remains exposed to global energy supply disruptions, with a high reliance on imported fuel. Inflation remains above target, leading to continued tightening from the RBA.
- Cash rate increased to 4.10%
- Bond yields rising, impacting asset valuations
- Economic growth remains moderate but fragile
Outlook
The outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures. Markets are expected to face:
- Slower global growth
- Persistent inflation
- Higher interest rates
Defensive strategies and careful asset allocation are likely to become increasingly important.
Key Known Risks
- Energy supply disruptions
- Inflation remaining above target
- Rising interest rates
- Weak returns from AI-related investments
- Stress in private equity and debt markets
- Geopolitical and climate-related events
Next Key Events
- US Federal Reserve Meeting – April 2026
- RBA Meeting – May 2026
- Australian Federal Budget – May 2026
About the Author
Bill Keenan
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sunbird Portfolios
Over 30 years’ experience in financial markets.
Disclaimer
This material is provided by Sunbird Portfolios Pty Ltd and is general in nature only. It does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.